Carbon emission reduction baseline study and case analysis during operation phase of large-scale ground-source heat pump systems

Zhi Chengqiang[1] Zhang Xu[1] Hong Xiaoyu[1] Wang Aoxue[1] Zhou Xiang[1] Wu Chao[2] Chen Hongxin[1]

2026.05.06

The use of shallow geothermal energy to centrally cool and heat urban buildings through large-scale ground-source heat pump technology is an efficient energy supply method with good energy saving and carbon reduction potential. There are currently some theoretical calculations and data surveys on the carbon emissions and carbon reduction potential of small-scale ground-source heat pump systems. However, there is a lack of research on carbon emission reduction and baseline scenario analysis of large-scale ground-source heat pump systems based on actual engineering project operational data. Using the example of a large-scale ground-source heat pump system in Huaibei, Anhui Province, which has been in operation for 9 years, the applicability of the project baseline scenario and the carbon emission reduction are investigated through operational data analysis and numerical simulation methods. The influence of the electricity carbon emission factor and the soil heat balance on the carbon emission reduction of the project is discussed.